We Want a Justice System

 

The first picture is my bike as I prefer to remember it. Bought new, for what was a substantial outlay for me. 

The second picture is from a couple of days ago, not long after some pieces of shit had taken it, crashed it and burnt it.

The theft was reported to the police within minutes, and was caught on CCTV. Friends tracked down the wreck not long afterwards, which indicates the bike had a heavy frontal impact which is likely (hopefully) to have injured the rider. No contact from the police. Are they doing anything?

I'm not allowed access to the CCTV. This is due to GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation) which is a regulation under EU law, introduced in May 2018. Not for the first time am I thankful for Brexit, as this lunacy is helping the scum stay free. I would by now have shared images on local social media, and maybe have a name. Action could then be taken, even by the police if we handed it to them and they're interested.

The oxygen thieves that took my bike are quite likely to be part of the gang that are regularly seen riding around the area, wheelying up and down the road, causing noise and nuisance, with no helmets on. Yes you've spotted the 'regularly', indicating nothing's been done to stop them yet. The likelihood is these are all stolen bikes, none will therefore be insured, and it's only a matter of time before there's an accident and they injure or even kill somebody. Will the police take more of an interest  then, when it becomes higher profile?

I understand the police are stretched, and this wasn't a crime that involved someone being hurt physically. But that doesn't lessen the impact. Is that my only form of transport? Do I rely on it for work, or to be able to get around to care for someone? Could I therefore lose my job because I can't get there, or someone else  be affected physically or mentally because I can't get to them?

Thankfully none of these apply in this case, but no-one else knows that. And if the rider is stupid or unskilled enough to crash the bike like that within a couple of minutes of taking it, why couldn't it be a person they hit next time? Does a child have to die before action's taken against these scum?

Right-thinking people would say 'no'. They want action now. I'd be quite happy to set up a sting, where we bait the trap and wait along the escape route to stop the perpetrators and 'rehabilitate' them. I'm pretty sure I'd get support, and also that I'd get a knock on my door from the police before the lowlife stopped screaming. 

The danger with this lack of official action is that vigilante groups will be set up. It's happened before where official support has been lacking. Personally I don't have an issue if someone taking what doesn't belong to them gets beaten to within an inch of their life, and if it's the rider of a just-stolen motorcycle it's cut and dried. There is though, the danger that an innocent person is targeted in error, which isn't acceptable.

Police officers themselves are normal people, so have the same feelings as the rest of us. They feel the same about the dregs of our society, but are restricted as to what they can do. I've seen their frustration before when they caught some kids who'd tried to break into a car I owned, and their response was limited. Their application and result in catching the criminals wasn't backed up by the justice system and the pond life walked.

So a message to our new PM is that we have to fund our public services properly. Otherwise you will get decent law abiding people taking the law into their own hands, which will add pressure to police, NHS and fire service as revenge attacks are carried out.

All we want is a safe society, instead of one where the criminals flourish safe in the knowledge they can do what they want.

The Next Chapter

I'm currently in a position I wasn't expecting, and one which isn't particularly welcome at this stage in either my life or my career. 

Staring down the barrel of redundancy - with a payout that isn't life changing - I was reminded that support is available on a personal level. Redundancy isn't personal, although initially it can feel that way. The role is gone, not the person, but the fallout and impact hits real people and their lives. The balance sheet looks healthier, the wealthy avoid or are able to weather the storm, and real people pick up the pieces, struggle and try to start again.

I reached out on a networking site to say I was becoming available for work, and the first response I got - within minutes - was from an ex manager I've not seen or spoken to for years, who shared my post on her network with a supportive message. It was unexpected, though very welcome. Throughout the day I had other supportive messages and offers, all of which lifted me and demonstrated again why accountants can never take over the world.

I also came across an extract from Jamil Qureshi, variously described as a performance coach, entrepreneur, motivational speaker, and much more besides. I first became aware of him when he was guest speaker at an event I attended, and found what he said and the way he delivered it resonated with me. Anyway, judge for yourself here:

https://www.jamilqureshi.com/the-price-of-success-is-always-paid-in-full-and-in-advance

Maybe, like me, you'll be interested enough to see and hear more of him. He's a very engaging speaker.

The conclusion of this piece is a way I've always tried to work with my teams, and it should make you question whether your organisation has the same values, or whether the doors to the Ivory Tower are firmly shut and bolted against such radical thinking. Maybe all companies start off believing in their employees, but at some point they get to a size where staff aren't people, but resource, and therefore able to be bought and sold in the same way as any other commodity. Once you get there, and give the bean counters the keys to the castle, you're fucked.

Not too long ago I heard a CEO of a large mutual saying that mutuality meant that with no shareholders to answer to the business could take a longer term view, which was a huge advantage in business. He's probably right, although if it's not practiced we'll never know. Short term gains and boosts to the balance sheet don't only impress shareholders, they help support big back-slapping bonuses as well, so it can be difficult to totally do away with the standard commercial model of the wealthy getting richer if you're on the receiving end.

I understand the reasons there had to be a change to the operating model at work. Various events since the start of the pandemic meant things had to change, and in fairness to the company they'd held out longer than could have been expected. A number of employees had been paid for over two years for doing very little, although they're happy to forget that now things are changing. There are opportunities for a number of them within the business, and support for those who are looking elsewhere, whether by choice or not.

I've been invited to apply for my existing role, at a lower grade and in competition with peers. I've declined, pointing out the differences between what's being offered and what I actually do in my current role and grade. It's obvious there's going to be a hole there when someone else takes my place. They'll do brilliantly at the core role, but the extra I was tasked with and paid for will have to be picked up somewhere, which doesn't seem to have been considered. But in the short term it's saving the business money.

So I'll start another chapter. I'm sure I'll find something. Maybe I'll go into politics, where the normal rules don't apply. There seem to be regular vacancies, and lack of ability, experience or qualifications doesn't seem to bar you from earning a high salary with extensive perks. Backstabbing appears commonplace, and there's no great expectations that you'll do the right thing for colleagues or anyone else. Add in a bit of nepotism, and it's a great training ground for the world of commerce.

Or maybe I won't.

Alternative Mini Budget

My last post may have come across as a little critical of Team Truss's fiscal plans, so as a believer in criticism being constructive, and in the interests of balance and fair play, here's some alternative suggestions. These are based around managing what we have, living within our means, and not endlessly trying to borrow our way out of trouble - which tends to end badly far too often. 

Hold on! Isn't the way we used to live before credit became too readily available? It never did my parents or grandparents any harm. They may not have had huge numbers of luxury items, but neither did they have personal bankruptcy, IVA's, debt management plans, and sleepless nights wondering how they could ever pay their debts and get straight again. 

Anyway, here goes:

• Stop fraudulent benefit claims by incentivising people to report offenders.

Firstly I have to say I have no issue with benefits being paid to people who genuinely need them. What needs stopping is people claiming when not entitled. This money could be put to better use in a number of areas, such as healthcare, public services, or supporting the taxpayer by reducing government debt. 

How many people know someone who is claiming when they could work, claiming and working, claiming single parent household support when they have a wage earner living with them, etc. Yes it can be hard for the benefits agency to find them all, but offer a  £500 tax free payment for information leading to a successful prosecution and they'll have plenty of leads and soon be able to make a significant dent in benefit payments, to the benefit of the majority.

• Collect unpaid tax

Similar to the above. Anyone working 'cash in hand' is potentially guilty of tax evasion and may be prosecuted and outstanding tax collected. £500 offered for information leading to prosecutions for evaders and those supporting them should soon have money rolling in to the coffers without penalising working taxpayers.

•  MP pay rises to mirror public services

Let's end the nonsense of MP's voting in their own pay rise. It won't add a lot to the purse, but clamping down on their expenses, second home allowances, etc as well will sweeten the pot.

• Tiered Corporation Tax

Leave corporation tax at the current level for most businesses, but introduce tiers in a similar way to income tax, so that higher earners pay more into the pot. At a higher level of 25% this would still be competitive with other countries, and at the lower level smaller businesses would be supported.

• Leave the top rate of tax unchanged

This only affects income over £150,000 a year so why give away tax revenue when those affected  are the ones who notice it least. They're already benefitting from the basic rate reduction in the same way as the rest of us.

• Stamp Duty threshold £250,000 for everyone

Raising the threshold to £425,000 for first time buyers is again benefitting  the rich who can afford it. I work with a number of young people who have bought for the first time since the covid pandemic, and normal earners can't afford first properties much above £250,000 so let's again take revenue from those who are privileged enough to afford it, as we do now.

• Windfall tax on oil and gas companies

This has been proposed repeatedly, and makes sense. Companies could reduce their liability by cutting prices which would benefit us all, or keep making the same profits and help fund the price cap, thereby lowering government borrowing.

• Raise the Money Purchase Annual Allowance

Not immediately obvious, but stick with it.

Most people can access their personal pensions from age 55, and continue working if they wish. Taking the 25% tax free cash doesn't affect anything, but once you take a taxable sum the amount you can pay into a pension before getting a tax charge drops from £40,000 to £4,000.

Most of us won't get near paying the maximum, but many are over the minimum so would be affected. This was brought in to stop people recycling pension money for the tax relief, although as this would only be done by people with specialised knowledge - or high earners with financial advisers - it's potentially penalising ordinary working people saving for retirement in the last few years of their working lives. Financial advisers will suggest alternative investment strategies for their clients to continue maximising retirement savings, but the majority can't afford this route.

Pensions auto enrolment was introduced to get more people saving for retirement, and making them less reliant on the state pension, so by extension scrapping the money purchase annual allowance would extend the strategy of giving people more money to spend in their latter years - thereby increasing tax revenues.

A  - possibly unintended - consequence of the mini budget is that the pound is continuing to fall in value against other major currencies, meaning that holidays abroad will be getting dearer. For those that can still afford to have a holiday break, staycations will help swell the government coffers, as will the influx of foreign tourists as Britain becomes a cheap holiday destination. The wealthy will, of course, still be able to holiday abroad.

The measures above aren't a silver bullet to fix the economy overnight - there isn't one - but are just meant to suggest there may be alternatives to uncapped borrowing and just increasing the wealth of the already rich. Somebody better positioned and qualified than me please investigate alternatives before we all end up 'Trussed-Up' in massive debt.

Finally, I caught part of an advert on the radio yesterday, hearing the bit that said something like 'you may be able to write off up to 80% of your unsecured debt'. If anyone else heard it can you plus pass the details to Liz and Kwasi for future reference.

If I Were a Rich Man

I'd like to congratulate Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party for their victory in the next general election. Liz Truss has been Liberal, Conservative and now appears to be, covertly, Labour. And a great asset to them she is too. Right from the start she's set out to alienate great swathes of the electorate who voted Tory last time out, and probably also before that. These are the huge percentage of floating voters who have no lifelong allegiance to any party but vote for the party they see as being best for them at that point in time. Or least worst, anyway.

These people aren't on an MP's salary and gold plated pension. They're not bankers, earning more money than they can spend and then getting huge obscene bonuses on top. They're the ones who sell these people their new Bentleys and serve them their expensed lunches and corporate dinners. Bankers being able to save and invest even more money won't help normal people or small businesses pay their fuel bills. Huge bonuses won't be used for philanthropic ends.

If Liz were ever to look for a well paid seat on the board of a large financial institution when she finishes PM-ing, removing the cap on Fat-Cat bonuses will look good on the CV. Would it be cynical to suggest that she recognises her tenure may not extend beyond the next general election, and already has an eye to the future?

Reversing the National Insurance increase will benefit working people who earn over the threshold £12584pa. Earning below this, or not working, or retired and it won't make any difference. The more you earn the greater the benefit, so favouring the stereotypical Tory supporter. The reduction in the basic rate of income tax to 19p coming a year early will help more people, but scrapping the additional rate of tax is a tax cut for the rich.

The extra debt that's being amassed will however be paid ultimately by all taxpayers. If there's a change of government in the next general election (due by January 2025) more of the burden may be taken by a windfall tax, corporation tax increase, or similar, on big businesses, but if Ms Truss (sounds too much like Mistrust!) is still in charge the lower paid will likely have the heaviest burden. It's a sad fact that very high earners often have ways of paying proportionately less tax than us mere mortals.

And that debt time bomb continues to grow, not just with further spending (with money they don't have), but also due to increasing interest rates. And interest rates will keep rising to try and control inflation. This has worked in the past by restricting consumer spending - but this time that's already happened with necessities increasing in price. People are starting to struggle to afford basics, let alone any form of luxuries. Apart from those in the higher socio-economic groups, who have enough to carry on and are therefore protected from the real world. Tax revenues then are falling as people stop spending, so government debt continues to increase. Our debt - or at least one we'll ultimately have to pay.

The huge profits announced this year by some energy companies have been protected, it's said, as they need the money to fund research into renewable and other sources of energy which will benefit us in the future. They'll help us become less reliant on other countries, and protect us from high and fluctuating costs. Liz Truss wants the UK to become a net energy exporter by 2040, reversing energy imports which have been increasing since 2004. Who's going to fund this, and who will benefit? 

I may be missing something, but haven't we had north sea oil for decades, and been spawning ever increasing numbers of wind turbines over the last 20 years. Why then have our electricity bills never been higher, and I struggle some weeks to get diesel for my truck? Something's not quite adding up. The first wind turbines will be coming up to being taken down and replaced soon as they reach the end of their 25 year life, which will be a further cost preventing any savings being passed to the consumer. Energy bosses will still be able to receive five and six figure bonuses though, which will take the sting out of their winter electricity bills!

The recent announcements seem to be based on 'Trickle Down Economics', based on an ideology that says 'if we reward those who are already wealthy, the whole of society will benefit'. Think 'Downton Abbey', or 'Upstairs, Downstairs, and make your own mind up. 

Keep in mind also that the government has blocked any independent forecasts being published prior to this fiscal statement. You have to ask why they don't want us to see what the office of budget responsibility forecasts.

If the tide turns and Sir Keir moves into number ten the general populace will have more money in their pockets, high earners and fat cats will still have more than enough, consumer spending will therefore increase which will benefit businesses large and small, helping to lower unemployment, therefore increasing tax revenues which will then help to start making a dent in the national debt. 

So perhaps Liz Truss is right. Making unpopular decisions now will benefit us all in the long run!

A Letter To My 18 Year Old Self

 Dear Chris

Here I am at 61 years old having just become a grandad, while you're awaiting your A-Level results as you stand at the start of your adult life.

I remember being there. The day I got my results I had my first cigarette, which was the start of a smoking habit that would last for almost thirty years. I had my last smoke fourteen years ago, but today was diagnosed with smoking related bronchial disease. I'll be having tests to determine the extent and treatment, but it will affect the rest of my life. And probably shorten it.

So my first piece of advice to you would be Don't Smoke. Will you take it on board? Would I have done? I don't know. At 18 years old you're young and invincible, with the world at your feet, not ever once thinking that one day you'll be old with health issues.

My next piece of advice is to carry on learning. I stopped trying at school in my A-Level years and as a result failed the exams. Many years later I tried to get into university at the same time as my 18 year old daughter, but was unsuccessful. I continued with work related financial exams, studying in my own time and enjoying the learning, but it was too little too late to make any real difference to my life. Take the opportunities you're offered early in life and reap the rewards later on. 

I had the opportunity to attend RAF pilot selection, and if  I'd taken it and been successful my life could have been very different. I could have retired early on a good pension - or I could have been killed in combat. Never regret missed chances, as everything happens for a reason. Always stay positive and look forward. 

Don't rush into marriage. You're going to be around a long time. Very few people find their life partner first time, so take your time and get a soul mate. Don't bow to peer pressure. Do it in your own time, and you'll find yours lasting where theirs might not. I married early, then divorced, although the silver lining for us both was daughters and a granddaughter - with maybe more grandchildren to come. 

What job should you do? No-one can tell you that. Only you know what really interests you, and it's said that if you do something you love you'll never work a day in your life. I hope you find it. I never did. Sure, I had jobs I liked alongside people I enjoyed spending time with, but my real loves and interests lay elsewhere. Try and put the two together, whether self-employed or with the greater financial security of working for someone else.

Always pay your way. Stay on the right side of the taxman, your bank and the mortgage company and never let your debt get out of hand. Everything that glitters isn't gold, and it's not worth ruining your life by trying to live beyond your means. As you get older your income will increase, your outgoings reduce, and things once out of reach will become attainable. It's worth waiting for.

Do something occasionally that gets the adrenaline flowing or makes the heart race. Burt Munro (Google him) once said that you live more in 5 minutes flat out on a fast motorcycle than most people do in a lifetime. I've never done 5 minutes, but I've done enough to understand. Try it.

A lot has happened since that day I stood where you are now. Along the way I've got older, although never really given in to it or felt it until now. I always said I'd go out on my motorbike on my one hundredth birthday and I'd still like to be in that position, but realise now it probably won't happen.

If I knew then, on that day I smoked my first cigarette, what I know now, would I have done anything differently? I like to think I would, but I can't guarantee it. I've made poor choices and decisions, but the good has outweighed the bad and I've a lot to be thankful for. I've made a lot of good memories.

So live your life like you mean it. Make your own mistakes, and learn from them. Be honest, treat others with respect, and keep challenging yourself. You only get one shot at a life so make it count.

Enjoy

Chris

Sustainable Borrowing?

Many years ago I worked for a finance company, providing credit facilities to motorcycle dealers to enable their customers to buy bikes. At that time Honda advertised their Cub range to commuters as a cheap way to travel to work, and the iconic machine has sold over 100 million world-wide since 1958.

Most buyers however were teenagers chasing a dream, but whoever the customer was it was always drilled into us to prove their ability and willingness to repay the loan before granting the credit. 

This was in the days before computers. A credit check was done by the telex operators sending off the customer details, and the result coming back a couple of hours later. If that was inconclusive an enquiry agent could be hired to physically check out the details we'd been given. Time-consuming, expensive, and far less effective than todays data and algorithms.

Then we looked to see if the proposed purchase fitted the buyer. A 70 year old pensioner buying a Honda 750 was likely to be doing so on behalf of a grandson. If he couldn't get credit in his own right it was unlikely he'd repay with his grannie's name on the finance agreement.

It was a high-risk business, but ultimately turned a profit - possibly helped by the not inconsiderable interest rates being charged.

Those that didn't pay had it reflected on their credit file, meaning the next time they wanted to borrow money the mainstream banks wouldn't help and they'd pay higher rates to get the money elsewhere. This cycle would be repeated with further defaults, until ultimately they'd run out of lenders.

But even those willing to repay the loan could find their circumstances changing, and suddenly their ability to repay had gone, and they also defaulted, and a credit file made no distinction between them and the serial defaulters.

We've been told today that energy bills are to be capped at £2500 for a typical household until 2024. That's higher than last year, but still very welcome considering what we were potentially looking at. The cost is said to be in excess of £100 billion, and will be funded by government borrowing.

The government wants to cut taxes, not raise them, so in order to help people with energy bills the money will have to be borrowed. But when governments borrow the money has to be repaid eventually - with interest. That means taxpayers ultimately pay.

The total amount the government owes is called the national debt, which is currently around £2.4 trillion - almost as much as the total of all goods and services produced in the UK in a year. Interest on this over the next two years is expected to be around £100 billion, and interest rates are increasing.

Traditionally the government borrows by issuing bonds - basically interest-bearing IOUs - which are bought by investors, pension funds and private individuals. UK government bonds are known as gilts - short for gilt edged securities - seen as a solid investment as they have never yet defaulted on a repayment.

However like any borrower there must be a limit to borrowing, based on their perceived ability and willingness to repay the debt. They will always want to honour a debt, but the ability is dependent on the money they can raise - in other words taxes - which is finite. Particularly if you pledge to reduce personal taxes and don't want to levy windfall taxes or other increases on businesses.

There has to come a day of reckoning if it isn't managed along the way, which would affect us all. The cost of this current crisis hasn't been lessened, just deferred, like any buy-now-pay-later scheme which we're repeatedly advised to avoid.

The government could do worse than follow traditional credit advice and learn to budget more effectively now, rather than face a situation like the Greek debt crisis later.

Moving On

 The Triumph Bonneville's gone, and the Maeving's been ordered. I'm expecting delivery in November, so it won't get a lot of use initially based on customary autumn and winter weather. However, when it is used it'll need cleaning at some point, like they all do, which reminds me of a couple of ideas for chemical-free cleaning.

Firstly, black plastic and rubber trim on cars, motorcycles and pushbikes goes grey over time. Traditionally a product like back-to-black is bought and used, which restores the colour, at least for a time.  In my experience it can also leave you with black fingers, which is difficult to get rid of. An alternative is to use something containing natural oils. It's cheaper, kinder to the environment, and much better for your fingers! Believe it or not, smooth peanut butter can be rubbed into greying trim, then buffed up, and restores the colour nicely. Smells nice in warm sun as well!

Alternatively I've also used cooking oil. I found a drop of olive oil in a bottle in the kitchen cupboard and found that also did the job, and with much less effort. Neither of these last forever so will need redoing from time to time, but give good results for little cost or effort, and don't harm the environment.

The second tip is more for older vehicles, where chrome plating may have started to pit and rust. Commonly some form of rust remover is brushed on and rinsed off. This chemically reduces the oxidation and restores the finish. This stuff often comes with a warning to rinse any splashes off your skin immediately, which gives some idea of the chemical strength. Strength and effectiveness often increases in line with the price being paid.

An alternative, which is kinder to your wallet, skin and the planet is to use ordinary kitchen foil. Scrunch it up, wet in in clean water, and rub it over the affected area. I didn't believe it either until I tried it, but it works and the wet foil can go in the recycling bin afterwards. No chemical waste and no landfill. I believe vinegar can be used instead of water for stubborn areas, but I haven't yet tried it myself. If anybody does, please leave a comment to let us know how it works.

Same with any other low cost and environmentally friendly cleaning hacks - please feel free to share any in the comments.

On a different note, one of my bikes went into the garage this week with a starting problem. It's a 1968 Metisse:

No it's not electric, and in fact it doesn't even have a battery. No lithium was harmed in it's construction! It's old-school, a copy of Steve McQueen's Desert Racer, so starts with a kickstart and the lights work when the engine's running. It has no unnecessary weight in the form of a battery, exhaust baffles, starter motor, catalytic converter, ABS, indicators or unnecessary bodywork, and the engine is over 50 years old and still going strong. It's at the other end of the evolutionary scale to the electric bike I've ordered, but each tends toward sustainability in its own way and I'll ride them both.

Finally, I became a grandad a few days ago. My gorgeous granddaughter will be part of a generation that benefits from us reducing and reversing damage done to the planet, which drives home just how important even small things are in improving her future.

Thanks for reading.

Chris